As Global Warming Continues?

I've been learning a lot about holistic ranching. Among other advantages, holistic ranching does seem to have considerable potential for major carbon sequestration. Because plants use carbon dioxide, now considered a pollutant by the EPA, we can sequester carbon dioxide whether or not we believe it to contribute to global warming. And we can use our methane generating cows to help. I only wish that we could simply spend more time with our cows and less time trying to be responsible, informed, voting citizens. Unfortunately, our government seems to be careening out of control and we ignore it at our own peril.

I got up last week in Virginia prepared for nasty freezing rain/ice/snow followed by a day of rain that had been predicted only 24 hours prior. No snow, no ice, no rain. Once again, the computer models had failed to predict with accuracy only 24 hours in advance. I am not complaining. But computer models for weather, demonstrably unreliable even in the short term, are being used to predict weather years or decades in advance. With the right fudge factors, of which they contain many, the predictions show us to be in deep trouble from man-made global warming due to carbon dioxide emissions. Never mind that the most notorious model (Al Gore's hockey stick) cannot back predict and has code problems. If it is is not accepted as gospel, we become one of those "deniers" who arbitrarily disregard "settled science".


We have only to go to most of the major news channels to be assailed with the verbal equivalent of what we try to avoid stepping in when we visit our bull pastures. The last decade has had two of the hottest years in history, said politically correct talking heads just last week. That's scary. Delving a little deeper for the science--Last decade was hottest on record, says UK Met Office http://www.energyefficiencynews.com/i/2645/ “If we want to avoid dangerous climate change, this high sensitivity of the Earth to CO2 should be taken into account when defining targets for the long-term stabilisation of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations,” says co-author Alan Haywood from the University of Leeds. Although the data isn’t in yet, early reports indicate that 2009 may be the fifth warmest year since records began.

That is really scary. But my perspective is a little different. 1.) Records referred to in the article began in 1860, so headlines did not mean the hottest temperatures forever, just the hottest temperatures that were recorded in the UK since 1860. Geologically speaking, that is not a very long time. Some recorded temperatures have even been questioned because recording devices were found in the exhaust from air conditioners, in big cities, etc. where they would not accurately reflect the correct temperature. 2.) findings were likely peer reviewed (from the leaked emails amongst leading UK scientists, we know that "peer reviewed" now also means politically correct, which means in turn that somehow carbon dioxide levels must be blamed). 3.) Global warming and man-caused global warming are two entirely different subjects. We can't do much about the first, and it has happened, possibly is continuing to happen. It has something to do with our own nearby star, the sun. And our orbit, as well as axis of rotation and who knows what else. 4.) Man can certainly make a contribution. Removal of rain forests, pollution, poor stewardship of our land, all would play a role as do volcanoes and unchecked forest fires.


Now for some inconvenient facts, in case you have listed your winter clothes on Craigs list or haven't ventured outside:

over 4500 new snowfall, low temp, and lowest max temp records set in the USA for Nov 10-Nov 18 http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/18/a-cold-start-to-fall-over-4500-new-snowfall-low-temp-and-lowest-max-temp-records-set-in-the-usa-this-last-week/

As the "deniers" in Texas unfreeze their water lines and much of the US experiences frigid pre-winter cold (the new records shown above were from November, but this December has been pretty impressive so far), some of our representatives are busily considering how to pass Cap and Trade so as to protect us from global warming by shutting down our industry and fossil fuel production, exporting jobs and wealth to countries (India, China, Russia, Korea, Mexico) that do not impose these same restrictions, and doubling or tripling our energy bills. That certainly makes as much sense as taxing the methane from cattle exhaust. (Sound impossible. Take a look: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyZRCMik6To ) Or giving the government total rights to and control of every drop of water on our land, even in potholes http://www.epa.gov/wetlands/guidance/CWAwaters.html . We all need to be concerned about the overwhelming potential consequences of government mismanagement and enchroachment, all of which is done for our own good, of course.

Gary

PS If we really want to worry about something else, try global cooling. Don't worry too much though, because is not likely to happen during the normal temperature oscillations of our lifetime. For perspective, the best data that incorporate geological time frames go back 420,000 years and are shown below. Common sense points to remember: 1.) Periodically the earth has warmed up and cooled down. 2.) The periodic warming and cooling have occurred even before mankind could possibly have had any significant impact. 3.) The earth has been consequentially warmer before than it is now; e.g., historically Greenland at one time supported farming (back before we had thermometers), and we're not close to being that warm yet. 4.) The overwhelmingly most significant but conveniently overlooked greenhouse gas is water vapor. (Suggesting that you would like to study the impact of water vapor on global warming is not likely to get you a government-funded grant.) 5.) One of the best rational common-sense presentations on global warming is that of Professor Bob Carter http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2HfLgk7A88

For additional reference, the following commentary is taken directly from the listed source.


http://muller.lbl.gov/pages/IceAgeBook/history_of_climate.html:

"We can continue the climate plot further back by using the records from Vostok, the Russian base in Antarctica, where another ice core was drilled. The last 420 thousand years of a deuterium measurement at Vostok is shown in Figure 1-5, with the most recent 100 kyr appended from the Greenland record (which is more detailed). The temperature scale was adjusted to agree with the scale on the Greenland record.



Figure 1-5 Climate for the last 420 kyr, from Vostok ice

Global warming in the Arctic

The Washington Post (Associated Press) printed the following scientific observations as reported by Dr. Adolf Hoel:

"The Arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot, according to a report to the Commerce Department yesterday from Consul Ifft, at Bergen, Norway.

Reports from fishermen, seal hunters and explorers, he declared, all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the Arctic zone. Exploration expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Soundings to a depth of 3,100 meters showed the gulf stream still very warm.
Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, the report continued, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared. Very few seals and no white fish are found in the eastern Arctic, while vast shoals of herring and smelts, which have never before ventured so far north, are being encountered in the old seal fishing grounds."

So there we have it; first hand reporting by a scientist of the disastrous impact of global warming. Could the warming be caused by the excessive amount of carbon dioxide that we are now producing? Certainly, based upon what the media reports as "settled" science! Should this make believers out of the "deniers" ? Perhaps, except that the source report of the Washington Post article on changes in the arctic is in the Monthly Weather Review for November 1922. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/03/16/you-ask-i-provide-november-2nd-1922-arctic-ocean-getting-warm-seals-vanish-and-icebergs-melt/ That report came out before the more recent scientific concern about global cooling which has been followed by the current scientific concern about global warming. Now it's the polar bears (whose population is actually increasing) rather than the seals for which the arctic is too hot.